Should the Jaguars trade back into Round 1 to get their QB?
Imagine this scenario for a moment. The Jaguars make their pick at 16. That pick is not a QB. It could be Cam Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan, Akeem Ayers, or any other player you think would be a good fit at 16. Fearing their QB will not make it past all of the other QB needy teams in Round 2, Gene Smith decides to pull the trigger and trades back into the last few picks of Round 1.
I think this is a valid scenario to raise. With the way QB stocks are falling, I believe most QB needy teams will be passing on QBs in Round 1 in order to get their guy in Round 2. With the Jaguars picking right in the middle of Round 2, the odds of having their guy fall to them isn’t very high. What would it take to get back into Round 1?
This is a draft trade chart that comes courtesy of fellow Jags blogger Adam Stites (TheJaggernaut.com) The big thing that is different about this chart than from other charts you’ll see around the net is the lower values placed on 1st round picks and a higher value given to later picks.
The Jimmy Johnson trade chart everyone uses is sorely outdated with the skyrocketing cost of signing high end draft picks. When you use this chart to calculate all the draft trades over the last few years, suddenly picks that went for a “Discount” are now getting their accurate value.
Let’s set our sights on the 32nd overall pick. The Packers have a lot of young talent coming back and would probably be inclined to listen to trade offers. The Jaguars would then need to offer up 550 points worth of picks. The Jags have the 49th overall pick worth 344 points, so they need to make up another 206 points. They have the 113th and 120th overall picks, which combine for 144 points. To make up the other 62 points would probably require a 2012 3rd round pick.
Is a net loss of 3 middle round picks worth grabbing your QB of the future? IMO, yes. But if that isn’t your fancy, we’ll try another idea.
If the Jaguars were willing to part with their 2nd and 3rd round picks, then that could also be enough to satisfy pick value. However, then you are probably through with getting starters out of this year’s draft.
If you don’t want to lose any picks out of this year’s draft, there is another option. New England holds the 1st pick of Round 2. They have shown time and time again they’ll trade a current pick for a future pick in a higher round. Should the Jaguars offer up their 2012 1st to New England? And dare I say offer up a 4th round pick to sweeten the pot as well?
All of this being said, I’m just not convinced a QB worth taking as a starter will be there at 49. Newton, Gabbert, and Locker will all be 1st rounders. Ponder and Kapernick are rising fast, while Devlin and Mallett are in free fall. The Jaguars will be faced with two choices. Reach for their guy at 16 or try to make a move back into Round 1. You can’t put a price on getting a franchise QB.
